Attrition rates for online courses are fairly high. In the years I worked in distance education and eLearning, we always knew that external incentives were a huge reason anyone signed up for a masters program online and why they would complete the program. We didn't keep in-house stats when I was working at UT or ASU, as many students blended their learning between on-campus and online, but I believe in our cohort of 15 students to begin a unique program we designed, we only lost 3 of the 15 or so who started.
Massive Open Online Courses
have an estimated retention rate of about 10%.
Depending on who you talk to, this is either a problem or it is nothing to worry about. What's interesting is hearing the various excuses and pointing of fingers I've seen lobbed in my personal experience over the years - from "it doesn't matter that the students leave in droves, they came in to get what they needed and left" to "if the faculty can't hold the students' attention, that's really saying something about the faculty".
What nobody is apparently willing to say is that maybe we already have ample evidence that this isn't working as originally intended. Moving the posts in the first quarter of the game turns it into Arena Football, it doesn't improve the NFL.
Look, if you have a TV show and if by week 10, you've lost 80 - 90% of your audience, your show is getting canceled. It doesn't really matter how great of a debut you had. If your whole network loses 80-90% of every program it runs, everyone is getting fired and you're shutting down. If you had a play, and by the time you closed the final curtain your formerly sold out house was left with 10% of the attendees wanly applauding, you'd figure maybe the place was on fire and nobody had told the cast and crew.
I find the idea that students are dipping into classes, getting what they need, and then exiting a naive and groundless assumption and, frankly, the sort of useless hand-waving that folks in higher ed are good at. I suspect they know better, but it's something to say until they put together some actual data on what's happening.